US oat and barley production are still forecast lower than in 2024, even as yields improve in several states, according to the latest USDA estimates.
A USDA crop production report released earlier this week pegged 2025 American oat production at 932,790 tonnes million bu, up 3% from the government’s July forecast but still 5% below a year earlier. National barley output is estimated at 3.073 million tonnes, a drop of 4% on the year.
For oats, planted area stands at 2.34 million acres, up 6% from last year and 2% from the previous forecast. However, US growers expect to harvest only 843,000 acres for grain — down 5% from 2024. The national yield is projected at 76.2 bu/acre, up 0.7 bu from the July estimate but slightly below the 2024 crop. If realized, this would be the second-highest yield on record.
Barley planted area is estimated at a record low 2.28 million acres — 4% below last year. Harvested area is projected at 1.81 million acres, the lowest since 1875. Yields, however, are expected to average 77.9 bu/acre, 1.2 bushels higher than last year.
The USDA’s data highlights an ongoing trend of shrinking oat and barley acreage across much of the US, with some states setting record lows. While strong yields are helping to offset reduced harvested area, total production remains under pressure compared to last year. Weather conditions in the coming weeks will be critical for determining final quality and output as harvest advances.
Monday’s USDA crop progress report showed the US oat harvest at 55% complete as of Sunday, up from 41% a week earlier and near 56% last year and 59% on average. The crop was rated 58% good to excellent as of Sunday, 9 points below last year.
The barley harvest was reported at 18% done as of Sunday, up from 5% the previous week and compared to 16% last year and 24% on average. Just 43% of the crop was rated good to excellent, well down from 69% last year.
Canadian oat production this year is currently estimated by Agriculture Canada at 3.395 million tonnes, up just slightly from 3.358 million in 2024. The Canadian barley crop is pegged at 7.9 million tonnes, down from 8.144 million a year ago.
